FBC – 435 – Did I pass on a billion dollar investment?

Did I pass on a billion dollar investment?

Hello guys,

You'll find ton of value and actionable tips in today's episode

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Today I want to tell you how I might have passed on the opportunity of a lifetime (who the hell knows)

The reason for it, is the way we make decisions in a very specific situation…

Chances are that this same misfortune has or will happen to you if you don't know where you are doing wrong

In today's episode, we are going to discuss what that costly mistake is

Make sure to tune in

—

Here is one of my favorite quotes:

“When you find an idea that you just can’t stop thinking about, that’s probably a good one to pursue.”
-Josh James, co-founder and CEO Omniture, founder and CEO Domo

[Full Disclosure: As an affiliate, I receive compensation if you purchase through my affiliate link.]

Martin Ebongue

Online Entrepreneur & free spirit:

Proud Co-Founder Of The Ninja leads Mastermind

 

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How To Build Income Streams: Check Out The System That Allowed Me To Build 27 Income Streams

Passive Income: Best System For Beginners To Earn Passive Income Without A List, Social Media Or Ads.

 

 

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Your Podcast Host

International Speaker | Podcaster | Free Spirit

Freedom Is A Choice: So choose wisely...

Welcome to the Freedom By Choice Podcast with your one and only hoste Martin. This podcast is reserved for freedom aficionados and entrepreneurs looking to create the lifestyle of their dreams.

In this podcast you will find all the support and answers you need to start, grow and scale a business that gives you the freedom you deserve.

I have compressed years of trials and errors, into easy to consume episodes, to take you from where you are now, to where you want to be.

I wanted to talk to you about something that's a little bit counterintuitive and that you guys are facing every like every single day.

OK, so I want your opinion on something. So do you think it's better to have no results at all or having some results, like even just a little bit of traction?

The first thing that comes to mind will be I mean, if you ask me, some results will be kind of nice. But the purpose of this podcast is actually to show you that even though most of us will actually think that, you know, some results will be better than no result, then it's not necessarily what happens in practice.

OK, so let's say, for example, you have a friend who tells you, oh, man, I want to start this business and all that kind of stuff, and we're going to do X, Y and. And then, well, you need to invest some money.

So you're asking him, OK. What's the deal? Do you know what you're doing?  Did you have some results with this? Yes or no.

So if the person has zero results, do you think you would be more likely to invest versus if the person had a little bit of results to show you? So you might think that, yeah, I will go with the results. But here's what’s happening. And it's very it is very fascinating how the human brain works.

Your rational thinking will say, well, obviously I'm not going to give money to some dude who has zero results and the chances of that going bust are a lot higher than someone who does have some results.

Did I pass on a billion dollar investment?

Here is where something else comes into play. If someone has zero numbers to show you, well, the absence of numbers will actually, in your mind, trigger the infinite possibilities. If there are no numbers, it means that it didn't fail.

So there is a chance that it can blow up and the guy can skyrocket or he can scale this thing to the moon and he can become the next overnight success because all the promises are there. And there's nothing right now that hasn't invalidated that idea.

So, you know, it's like a flip of a coin. It could go either way. You could have a massive amount of millions of dollars that is going to pour out of that idea.

And so even though at first glance you would have said, now, do you know numbers? I'm not giving you money. Well, what basically what's going to happen is that even the savviest investors, they will actually go and put money there, right?

They'll be like, yeah, man, if this thing blows up, then I am making so much money that you can't even imagine. And they will give the money just because of the infinite possibilities that are created by the absence of numbers.

And it actually doesn't make any sense. If you think about it rationally, you might be well, you know, maybe I need some faith and say, well, obviously we are actually going to look at the business model and the idea and all that kind of stuff that's behind.

And please understand, I mean, every company, like every giant that you see has started with small numbers, like they started from zero and then they got their first client for a hundred bucks or something. So if at that time people said, you know what, you only sold one hundred bucks, you can go to hell, then I'm pretty sure that some people who were asked to invest and have regretted it afterwards.

So it is just very fascinating.

How I actually make a big decision under uncertainty

You will never know if you passed on the deal of a lifetime. That is exactly why your decision process matters more than any single outcome.

I have walked away from things that might have been huge. For a long time that haunted me. Then I stopped scoring myself on outcomes I could not predict and started scoring myself on the quality of the call at the time.

My filter is short. Can I afford the worst case in full. Does this fit the life I am actually building, not the one that looks good to strangers. Would I regret trying more than I would regret passing. If the answers line up, I move, and I do not relitigate it later.

The point is to make reversible bets fast and irreversible bets slowly. Most people do the opposite and freeze on the small stuff while gambling the big stuff on a feeling.

Good judgment is a system, not a gift. Harvard Business Review has long separated reversible from one-way-door decisions, and Stripe Atlas frames early founder choices as managing downside, not chasing perfect information.

I tell the full story of the ones I passed on in my story, and I keep working through these calls on the podcast. Judge the decision, not the dice.

Frequently Asked Questions

How should a solopreneur evaluate large investment opportunities?

Evaluate on three dimensions: alignment with current mission, time required to manage, and downside if it fails. A billion dollar opportunity that demands all your attention for a decade can still be a bad fit if it pulls you off your audience and lifestyle goals. Optionality has a price most spreadsheets miss.

Why might passing on a huge deal be the right call?

Big deals come with big constraints: investors, deadlines, scope creep, and team buildout. A solopreneur who values autonomy can rationally pass on a unicorn opportunity in favor of a smaller business that pays well, runs lean, and respects their lifestyle. Money is a means, not a verdict on a decision.

What questions should you ask before saying yes to a big opportunity?

Three questions: what do I have to give up to do this, who controls the outcome, and would I still want it if the upside was 10 percent of the projection? If you cannot stomach the giving up, the loss of control, or the conservative scenario, decline and protect your runway.

Do solopreneurs really need to chase billion dollar outcomes?

No. Most solopreneurs achieve their financial freedom number with a focused 1 to 5 million dollar lifestyle business. Chasing nine-figure outcomes adds risk, partners, and pressure that conflict with the original reason most people went solo. Define your number first, then accept only deals that move you toward it.

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