FBC – 83 – Why your assumptions can lead you to failure?

Why your assumptions can lead you to failure?

So for example we had two different ways of going at it and we were trying to figure out which one was going to be the more efficient. But we had an idea. Go launch it and test it and just see with like live data and real people what will work and what won't work. I mean sometimes your assumption is bad.

You know you were this case don't beat yourself up. You know you need some sort of like objective or whatever but don't get too attached to it saying that this has to materialize, otherwise it's a failure. No it's not.

I’ll give you an example of something that happened to me. I was sending this this offer. Right. So it was this weight loss offer for a weight loss product right. So there was one link that said here's how you can lose weight. And there was another article, another link that said here is something about organic food.

And again my assumption was that 90 percent of the people were going to click on this one. So I didn't actually look at the stats. It was just my assumption. Right. Because I was sloppy. I was doing other stuff at the same time. And after a while I looked at the stats, but maybe like a year or something into it.

I realized that 80 percent of the clicks were actually going to the second link and I just assumed that it will be the opposite. So then afterwards, I understood that. And then I changed my strategy. I created some content for those people who did like the other link and it eventually led them to me.

This is the typical case of making assumptions based on some theory that you've formulated or something you would do. You don't know what other people will do. OK.

So what if it doesn’t work?

So you know sometimes it's best to stick with it and try to figure out what didn't work so that you can make it work, but you know realistically there are two things. There is theory and there is reality.

The theory is that while you start with something, you stick with it whatever happens and blah blah blah. But sometimes reality is that it doesn’t work and you need to accept that. I have dropped projects in the past to move to something else.

But yeah the message here is, don’t get emotionally attached to your assumptions and expectations. Just go with the flow and accept the fact that you don't know everything and you can’t predict the future and you can't predict what other people are going to think or do. Okay. That way you're going to achieve two things.

So first thing is that you're not going to beat yourself up and be disappointed and think you're a failure and that you're an idiot and you should have seen that coming.

And the second thing is that if you're not emotionally attached, you are going to go where the market wants to go and where success is. And that's the most important thing right. If your assumption was that we need to take a left and then people actually take a right. Well just go!

So basically you're always following success instead of following your assumptions that you're too proud and your ego is too big for you to let go of them.

About the Author

Martin Ebongue is the founder of martinebongue.com, an online business and lifestyle design blog focused on helping aspiring entrepreneurs build location-independent businesses. Since 2014, he has been creating and scaling online ventures across multiple niches, from digital products and affiliate marketing to SaaS and content platforms, while traveling the world. He shares the real-world strategies, tools, and systems that work, with a particular focus on AI-powered automation for solopreneurs. Follow him on YouTube, X (Twitter), and Instagram.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How do business assumptions lead founders to failure?

Most founders skip testing the assumption underneath the strategy. They assume customers want the product, the price is right, and the channel will work. When sales lag, they fix tactics instead of revisiting assumptions. The original wrong assumption then takes 12 months to surface as a structural problem.

What is the most expensive assumption an entrepreneur can make?

That the customer thinks like the founder. Founders default to assuming buyers value the same features, at the same price, in the same context they would. Real customers prioritize differently and pay for different reasons. Skipping interviews to confirm this gap is the single most expensive shortcut available.

How do you test a business assumption before committing money to it?

Run the smallest experiment that would invalidate it. Pre-sell the offer before building it. Run a 50 dollar ad to a landing page before hiring an agency. Interview 10 customers before scaling acquisition. Each test should cost less than 5 percent of the eventual investment it will validate or kill.

What should you do when a business assumption turns out to be wrong?

Document the new evidence, update the strategy, and tell the team within 48 hours. Founders who hide invalidated assumptions to protect ego let small problems compound into business-ending ones. Speed of belief revision is one of the most undervalued operating advantages a small company has over a large one.

Further reading

• LinkedIn Newsletter (Diary of a Virtual CEO): operational tactics covered weekly in the LinkedIn Newsletter (Diary of a Virtual CEO).
• Martin's story page: the full origin story on Martin's story page.
• Harvard Business Review: research on solo and founder-led operations from Harvard Business Review.
• HubSpot Blog: sales and marketing benchmarks on the HubSpot Blog.